February 2nd is a significant date on the calendar celebrated by the Pagan Celts as a spring festival, by the Christians as Candlemas Day, and by the German population as Grondhound Day. Falling midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, February 2 is a significant day in several ancient and modern traditions.

February 2nd has its roots in the ancient Pagan Celts who celebrated it as Imbolc, a pagan festival marking the beginning of spring. The Christians started the tradition of Candlemas Day on February 2nd. The clergy would bless and distribute candles needed for winter. The candles represented how long and cold the winter would be. Christians believed that sunny Candlemas meant another 40 days of cold and snow. Germans expanded on this concept by selecting an animal—the hedgehog—as a means of predicting the weather. The Germans pronounced the day sunny only if badgers and other small animals glimpsed their own shadows.

February 2, 1887

The first official Groundhog Day celebration took place on February 2, 1887, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. The first Groundhog Day celebration in Punxsutawney was the brainchild of local newspaper editor Clymer Freas, who sold a group of businessmen and groundhog hunters—known collectively as the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club—on the idea. The men trekked to a site called Gobbler’s Knob, where the inaugural groundhog became the bearer of bad news when he saw his shadow. Nowadays, the yearly festivities in Punxsutawney are presided over by a band of local dignitaries known as the Inner Circle. Its members wear top hats and conduct the official proceedings in the Pennsylvania Dutch dialect. (They supposedly speak to the groundhog in “Groundhogese.”)

How Accurate Are Groundhogs?

If a groundhog emerges from its burrow on February 2nd and sees its shadow due to clear weather, it will retreat to its den, and winter will go on for six more weeks; if it does not see its shadow because of cloudiness, spring will arrive early. While sunny winter days are indeed associated with colder, drier air, we probably shouldn’t trade in our meteorologists for groundhogs just yet. Studies by the National Climatic Data Center and the Canadian weather service have yielded a dismal success rate of around 50 percent for Punxsutawney Phil. Why is the Punxsutawney Groundhog named Phil? So, the story goes, Punxsutawney Phil was named after Prince Phillip, Duke of Edinburgh. Prior to being called Phil, he was called Br’er Groundhog.

Fun Folklore

The vice president of the Inner Circle prepares two scrolls in advance of the actual ceremony, one proclaiming six more weeks of winter and one proclaiming an early spring. At daybreak on February 2nd, Punxsutawney Phil awakens from his burrow on Gobbler’s Knob, is helped to the top of the stump by his handlers, and purportedly explains to the president of the Inner Circle, in a language known as “Groundhogese” whether he has seen his shadow. The president of the Inner Circle, the only person able to understand “Groundhogese” through his possession of an ancient acacia wood cane, then interprets Phil’s message and directs the vice president to read the proper scroll to the crowd gathered on Gobbler’s Knob and the masses of “phaithphil phollowers” (faithful followers) tuned in to live broadcasts around the world. The Inner Circle scripts the Groundhog Day ceremonies in advance, with the Inner Circle deciding beforehand whether Phil will see his shadow. The Stormfax Almanac has made note of the weather conditions on each Groundhog Day since 1999; the almanac has recorded 12 incidents in a 20-year span in which the Inner Circle said the groundhog saw his shadow while the sky was cloudy or there was rain or snow coming down, and in one case said the groundhog did not see his shadow despite the sunshine. The practices and lore of Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions are predicated on a light-hearted suspension of disbelief by those involved. According to the lore, there is only one Phil, and all other groundhogs are impostors. It is claimed that this one groundhog has lived to make weather prognostications since 1886, sustained by drinks of “groundhog punch” or “elixir of life” administered at the annual Groundhog Picnic in the fall. The lifespan of a groundhog in the wild is roughly six years.

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